The Overall Foreign Trade Situation Is Improving

Recently, the General Administration of Customs released the latest foreign trade data. From a single month perspective, in November, my country's import and export reached 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2%. Among them, exports were 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%.

Liu Aihua responded to a reporter's question from the "Daily Economic News" and said that overall, my country's export characteristics of stable scale and share have not changed, and its important position in the global industrial chain and supply chain has not changed. China remains an important force driving world economic growth and promoting globalization.

Talking about the characteristics of import and export of goods trade in November, Liu Aihua said that first of all, the export of goods turned from a decrease to an increase. The export volume of goods in November increased by 1.7% year-on-year, ending six consecutive months of decline. The total import and export volume increased by 1.2% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than last month.

Secondly, the trade structure continues to be optimized. From January to November, the import and export volume of general trade with a longer industrial chain and relatively high added value accounted for 64.8% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 1 percentage point from the same period last year, providing a more powerful basis for the high-quality development of foreign trade. support.

Third, the import and export of private enterprises maintained growth. From January to November, the import and export of private enterprises, the largest entity in foreign trade, increased by 6.1% year-on-year, accounting for 53.3% of total import and export, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the same period last year.

Fourth, the space for economic and trade cooperation has been effectively expanded. From January to November, the import and export volume of my country and the countries co-building the "Belt and Road" increased by 2.6% year-on-year, continuing to be faster than all imports and exports.

Fifth, new drivers of exports maintain growth. From January to November, my country's exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 2.8%, accounting for 58.6% of total export value, providing strong support for export growth. Among them, mobile phone exports increased by 3.3%, and automobile exports increased by 79.6%.

Liu Aihua said that the current global economic recovery is progressing slowly and economic and trade activities continue to be sluggish. Although external demand is still relatively weak, China's foreign trade relies on its strong industrial chain supply chain production advantages and ultra-large market advantages. With the support of policies such as unswervingly expanding high-level opening up to the outside world, China's foreign trade operations are still expected to continue to maintain overall good performance.

The foundation for manufacturing recovery needs to be consolidated

Judging from the leading indicators, the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) fell below the boom-bust line again in November. The fluctuation factors in the economic recovery process have become the focus of everyone's attention.

In this regard, Liu Aihua said that the PMI in November was 49.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. This is related to the fact that some manufacturing industries have entered the traditional off-season and the lack of market demand. "Judging from the PMI trend in recent months, China continues to be in a critical period of economic recovery, transformation and upgrading, and the PMI trend in the recent period also shows the characteristics of this stage."

First, enterprises have strong confidence in restoring development. Judging from the PMI sub-index, the production index in the PMI in November was 50.7%, remaining above the critical point for 6 consecutive months. Enterprise production also continues to expand. Judging from the industrial production data for November, it also shows an expansion trend. The added value of manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year that month, 1.6 percentage points faster than the previous month. Judging from the development expectations of the enterprises themselves, the expectation index for production and operation activities of manufacturing enterprises was 55.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, and has been in a relatively high prosperity range for five consecutive months.

Secondly, enterprises have strong momentum for transformation and upgrading. In November, the high-tech manufacturing PMI index was 51.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from last month. The equipment manufacturing PMI was 51.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month. From a structural perspective, high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing companies are expected to remain upward. Judging from the breakdown of industrial data for the month, the added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.8%. The growth rates were 4.4 and 3.6 percentage points faster than last month respectively. In addition, corporate profits have also continued to improve, and industrial enterprises above designated size have achieved year-on-year profit growth for three consecutive months.

Liu Aihua said that because the overall economy is still in the recovery period, the manufacturing purchasing managers index fell slightly in November, especially the new orders index dropped 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that insufficient market demand is still a problem faced by the current recovery and development of the manufacturing industry. The first difficulty. The foundation for the recovery of the manufacturing industry still needs to be consolidated.

"In the next stage, we must organically combine expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform, promote industrial upgrading and development with technological innovation, lead new demand with high-quality supply creation, and promote higher-quality development of the manufacturing industry." Liu Aihua said.