The Scale Of Foreign Trade Import And Export Is Expected To Remain Generally Stable

Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said on the 15th that although there will be many difficulties in the next stage, my country's industrial system is complete, the supply capacity is sufficient, and the characteristics of strong foreign trade resilience are obvious. Under the influence of various policies to stabilize foreign trade, the scale of foreign trade import and export is expected to remain generally stable.

On the morning of the 15th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in July 2023. A reporter asked a question at the meeting: In July this year, my country's exports fell by 9.2% year-on-year, and the export value denominated in US dollars has been in a double-digit negative growth state for two consecutive months. In the case of weak external demand, what is the outlook for my country's export trend in the second half of the year?

Fu Linghui replied that since the beginning of this year, the recovery of the world economy has generally been weak, and global trade has been sluggish. In the complex and severe environment, the resilience of my country's foreign trade continues to show. In the first seven months, the total import and export volume increased by 0.4% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 1.5%, and the share of exports in the global export market was generally stable. The international competitiveness of my country's export products is still strong.

In July, my country's total import and export volume fell by 8.3% year-on-year, of which exports fell by 9.2%, mainly due to two factors: First, the global manufacturing industry is in a downturn, and the impact of contraction in external demand continues. In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, staying in the contraction range for 11 consecutive months. Among them, the new export orders index was 46.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

Second, the base of the same period last year was relatively high, and the year-on-year growth rate has dropped. In April last year, due to the impact of the epidemic in some areas, imports and exports dropped sharply. From May to July last year, with the concentrated release of backlog orders, the growth rate of imports and exports continued to accelerate. Among them, the import and export in July last year increased by 16.3%, of which the export increased by 24.1%, both of which were the highest monthly growth rate of last year. The increase in the base of the same period last year affected the speed of imports and exports in July this year.

Fu Linghui pointed out that although there will be many difficulties in the next stage, my country's industrial system is complete, the supply capacity is sufficient, and the characteristics of strong foreign trade resilience are obvious. Under the influence of various policies to stabilize foreign trade, the scale of foreign trade import and export is expected to remain generally stable.

First, the import and export of private enterprises with strong vitality grew faster. From January to July, the import and export of private enterprises increased by 6.7% year-on-year, significantly faster than the growth rate of the total import and export, accounting for 52.9% of the total value of foreign trade. The ability of private enterprises to expand foreign trade is relatively strong, which is conducive to the steady growth of foreign trade.

Second, the diversification of trading partners continued to advance. While stabilizing trade with traditional trading partners, our country actively expands trade with new trading partners, promotes the joint construction of the "Belt and Road", accelerates the construction of free trade zones, and promotes the development of foreign trade. In the first seven months, my country's imports and exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 7.4% year-on-year, faster than the growth rate of all imports and exports.

Third, the new momentum of foreign trade development continues to grow. New forms of foreign trade continue to expand, and the leading role is enhanced. At the same time, the improvement of the market competitiveness of new products also helps the growth of foreign trade. Driven by the growth of new energy vehicle exports, my country's auto exports from January to July increased by 118.5% year-on-year.