The High-Quality Development Of China'S Foreign Trade Accelerates, And Rcep Dividends Bring New Impetus To Foreign Trade
In the first seven months, China's total import and export value was 23.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year (the same below). Among them, the trade surplus was 3.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3%. In terms of US dollars, the total value of my country's imports and exports in the first seven months of this year was 3.4 trillion US dollars. Among them, the trade surplus was 489.57 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.5%.
Facing the complex and severe external environment, how was the operation of my country's foreign trade in the first seven months? What new trends are there? What are the prospects? In this regard, the reporter interviewed relevant experts.
Looking at the whole: under the background of the global economic and trade downturn, the operation of foreign trade is generally stable
In July, the growth rate of imports and exports declined, but the surplus remained high. "my country's foreign trade import and export is running smoothly and in line with expectations, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed." Peng Bo, a researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that in general, in the global economic and trade recession, the import and export data of various countries generally decline. Against the background, it is not easy for China's import and export to achieve this achievement, which reflects the effectiveness of China's policies and China's solid position in the global supply chain industry chain.
Overall, the three major factors of "weak external demand, low prices, and high base" are still restricting the growth rate of imports and exports. Ying Xiwen, a senior researcher at Minsheng Bank Research Institute, pointed out that from the perspective of external demand, the PMIs of Europe, America, Japan, South Korea, and major ASEAN countries have fallen, and the import and export of South Korea, Vietnam and other countries have continued to decline year-on-year; The high level has led to a large year-on-year decline in major trade products this month, dragging down the import and export value; from the base point of view, my country’s export growth rate was 18.0% year-on-year in July last year, and the absolute volume was the second highest in the whole year. The decline has a greater impact.
Look at the market: RCEP dividends bring new impetus to foreign trade
It is worth mentioning that, judging from the two-year average growth rate in the month of July and the cumulative two-year growth rate from January to July, my country’s exports to emerging markets have grown significantly in the past two years, among which “the export to Africa has increased significantly, the export to Latin America has increased moderately, and the export to ASEAN has increased significantly. This is the result of my country's continuous diversification of exports through the "Belt and Road Initiative" and RCEP in recent years.
Since RCEP officially came into effect for the Philippines on June 2, all 15 members have completed the entry into force procedures and mutually implemented tariff concessions. The agreement has entered a new stage of full implementation.
According to media reports, a few days ago, at the Certificate of Origin Examination and Approval Center of the RCEP Advanced Innovation Test Base in Qingdao, Shandong, customs officials issued the RCEP Certificate of Origin for a batch of 5.6-ton container flexitanks exported to the Philippines. With this certificate, enterprises can reduce or exempt import duties of more than 2,000 yuan when importing these goods in the Philippines. In Guangxi Liugong's large-scale excavator assembly workshop, workers are stepping up assembly operations. This main control valve imported from Japan and South Korea is an essential part for the production of excavators. Under the RCEP policy dividend, the price of components has been reduced by an average of 300 to 500 yuan per unit.
"RCEP lowers the tariff level and circumvents the trade barriers of some countries through the rules of origin, which is very beneficial to the overseas market development of Chinese enterprises." Peng Bo said that in the long run, the full implementation of RCEP will help promote regional economic growth. Proper development and growth can help stabilize regional trade growth and at the same time enhance the ability to resist interference from extraterritorial pressure.
While helping foreign trade enterprises "go global", relevant departments such as the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs are also supporting enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions and marketing by holding a series of important exhibitions such as the China International Import Expo, Canton Fair, and Service Trade Fair, and increase their exposure to overseas markets. pioneering efforts. The reporter learned that the sixth CIIE will be held offline in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, 2023. Up to now, more than 50 countries have confirmed their participation in the exhibition, covering least developed countries, developing countries and developed countries.
A few days ago, Li Xingqian, director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, revealed at a press conference on business work and operations in the first half of 2023 that the Ministry of Commerce will form a joint policy with various local departments in the next step to fully promote the stability and quality of foreign trade and speed up visa processing and international cooperation. The resumption of flights and additional flights will continue to help companies stabilize orders and expand markets, and ensure the stability of the industrial and supply chains.
Looking to the future: China's foreign trade is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality growth
Looking forward to the next stage, Peng Bo pointed out that on the one hand, we still face difficulties and challenges, and on the other hand, we must see more opportunities growing. China's foreign trade is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality growth.
Lu Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, also expressed that he feels both pressure and confidence in the foreign trade trend in the second half of the year. At present, inflation in major developed economies is still at a high level, geopolitical conflicts continue, short-term external demand picks up, and power is insufficient. my country's foreign trade is still under great pressure for stable growth. For the better, the fundamentals have not changed. With the continuous development of a series of policy measures, we have the confidence, foundation and conditions to achieve the goal of promoting stability and improving quality of imports and exports.
According to Ying Xiwen's analysis, as the high base effect gradually subsides, the prices of major commodities begin to stabilize, and the effect of the previous depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is gradually reflected, it is expected that exports and imports may have reached the largest decline in the year in July, and the decline is expected to narrow in August.