Looking For New Highlights In Global Trade Growth In 2024

Affected by the slowdown in global economic growth, the overall performance of global trade in 2023 will be weak. Sluggish external demand has had a negative impact on China's foreign trade exports. However, China's foreign trade still withstood the pressure and stabilized its title of "seven consecutive championships" with a total trade volume of 41.76 trillion yuan, maintaining its first place in the world for seven consecutive years. , contributing to stabilizing the global industrial chain and supply chain.
1. The international transfer of industries is a historical law. With the development of global economy and technology, the international transfer of industries has been happening. With industrial upgrading and relocation of industries, the export structure of some countries will change. In what aspects are these changes mainly reflected? How can China avoid the impact of these changes on its overall export share?
Some of China's industries will be transferred to other countries accordingly, which will be beneficial for each country to leverage its respective advantages, form complementary cooperation, and even increase welfare. However, we must try to prevent this change from turning into disorderly behavior, intentional rent-seeking behavior, behavior that undermines the effective allocation of resources, or even pollutes the environment, causing damage to economic and social development goals. In the process of this change, we should strengthen two aspects of work. First, continue to promote the facilitation of trade and investment, so that enterprises can further reduce costs in the process of global resource allocation. Along with the reduction in costs, the efficiency of corporate decision-making will be further improved. On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the mutual cooperation between governments and enterprises. Through the construction of mechanisms, the transfer of industries, including the formation, improvement and optimization of cross-border industrial chains, can develop more orderly and soundly, thereby promoting economic growth. At the same time, in the process of promoting cross-border industrial allocation, vicious competition and involution between enterprises must be minimized, so that industrial development is conducive to the market and consumers, and is conducive to technological innovation.
With industrial upgrading and relocation, the export structure of some countries may undergo the following changes. One is the change in product structure. On the one hand, some less developed countries or low- and middle-income developing countries will undertake the transfer of a large number of China's labor-intensive industries and gradually become export bases for low value-added products, further reducing the export competitiveness of China's traditional advantageous products; on the other hand, , with technological progress and industrial upgrading, some countries may shift from exporting low value-added products to exporting high value-added products, such as electronic products, machinery and equipment, etc., forming homogeneous competition with Chinese export products. The second is the change in market structure. Some countries may shift their export markets from traditional markets to emerging markets in order to seek broader sales channels and more opportunities. The third is the change in trade methods. Some countries may shift from traditional trade methods to more modern trade methods, such as cross-border e-commerce, direct investment, etc.
To deal with the impact of these changes on China's overall export share, the following measures are recommended:
First, we should increase investment in technological innovation and R&D, develop high-tech manufacturing and modern service industries, encourage digital transformation of industries, and promote the upgrading of industries to high added value to adapt to changes in market demand. At the same time, diversified export products can be developed to avoid over-reliance on a single product. The second is to strengthen the market diversification strategy, actively explore emerging markets, strengthen trade and cooperation with these countries, strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries, jointly build regional industrial chains and supply chains, and stabilize and expand the scope of the export market. The third is to continue to promote innovation in trade methods to adapt to changes in market demand. The fourth is to steadily expand institutional opening up of rules, regulations, management, and standards to promote high-quality development of the free trade pilot zone. At the same time, we will promote the innovation and improvement of international trade rules under the multilateral trading system.
The changes are mainly in the following aspects. First, trade in goods slowed down, while trade in services continued to grow. In terms of volume, world trade in goods increased by 2.7% in 2022. Trade in services performed better than trade in goods, growing by 15% in 2022. Second, demand from developed economies such as Europe and the United States is weak, and global export growth is slowing down. Judging from the performance of various countries, demand in developed countries is weak, which has had a greater impact on global trade. The trade growth rate of emerging market countries is relatively high and has become an important engine for promoting global trade growth. Weak demand from developed economies such as Europe and the United States has seriously affected the foreign trade performance of some countries. Third, developed countries led by the United States advocate "supply chain reshoring" and vigorously promote manufacturing reshoring, friendly shore and near-shoring outsourcing. The United States promotes "near-shoring" and "friendly-shoring" policies, using India and Southeast Asia as outsourcing destinations for the United States, and forming a North American integration alliance with Canada and Mexico.